{
 "question": "Will Ralph Norman receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-ralph-norman-receive-at-least-59-of-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-08-25",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-20",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "At least 59%",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}