{
 "question": "Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-russia-enter-druzkhivka-by-december-31-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-31",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.41,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.43,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.51,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.54,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.51,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.52,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.33,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.31,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}