{
 "question": "Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 1, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-before-sep-1-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-17",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-31",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Before Sep 1, 2026",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.38,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.29,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.34,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.28,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.26,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}