{
 "question": "Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-steve-ballmer-be-richest-person-on-december-31",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-27",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
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     "probability": 0.004,
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     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
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     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
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     "probability": 0.003,
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     "probability": 0.004,
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     "probability": 0.004,
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     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.0035,
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    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
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     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
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    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.0025,
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    },
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     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.0025,
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     "probability": 0.0025,
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}