{
 "question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-not-return-to-normal-in-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-27",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-23",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.485,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.825,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.825,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.805,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.81,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.84,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "probability": 0.84,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-17",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-18",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "probability": 0.845,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.825,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.78,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.805,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.775,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.745,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.825,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.815,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}