{
 "question": "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-fed-decide-differently-in-the-next-three-decisions-jun-jul",
 "category": "econ",
 "as_of": "2026-08-27",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-12",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.465,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.685,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.555,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.27,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.31,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.35,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.33,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}