{
 "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december",
 "category": "econ",
 "as_of": "2026-10-12",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.465,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.44,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-18",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "probability": 0.755,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "probability": 0.745,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "probability": 0.745,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.745,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.745,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}