{
 "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026.html",
 "category": "econ",
 "as_of": "2026-07-28",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-14",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.094,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.042,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.038,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.0425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.0455,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.0485,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.0725,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.1195,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.222,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.247,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.264,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.2135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.1615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.2655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.263,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}