{
 "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026",
 "category": "econ",
 "as_of": "2026-09-10",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-22",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.225,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.225,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.225,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.225,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.24,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}