{
 "question": "Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be between 6% and 9%?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ralph-norman-in-the-2026-south-ccd244",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-08-20",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-15",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Ralph Norman, 6-9%",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.02,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.02,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.02,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.04,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.06,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}