{
 "question": "Will the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party be exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-number-of-2026-u-s-senate-including-special-elections-and",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-10-05",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-29",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "2",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.5,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.48,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.4,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.39,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}