{
 "question": "Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-number-of-u-s-senate-seats-won-by-candidates-unaffiliated",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-10-05",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-23",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "At least 2",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.1,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.07,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}