{
 "question": "Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline before Oct 1, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-u-s-and-china-agree-to-establish-an-ai-hotline-before-oct-1",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-29",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-23",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Before Oct 1, 2026",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.155,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.24,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.31,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}