{
 "question": "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-funds-rate-be-2-0-at-the",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-06",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-08",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}