{
 "question": "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-this-year",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-17",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Before Mar 1, 2027",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.22,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.205,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.195,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.19,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.25,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.34,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.31,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.29,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.32,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Before Feb 1, 2027",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.2,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.19,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.27,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.27,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.29,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}