{
 "question": "Will the USD Settlement Price for the Current Auction of the August 19, 2026 CARB Joint Auction #48 settle at or above the official August 19, 2026 ICE settlement price for the August 2026 California Carbon Allowance Vintage 2026 Future?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-the-usd-settlement-price-for-the-current-auction-of-the-august",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-19",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-18",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "CARB ≥ ICE",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.22,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.3,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}