{
 "question": "Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-there-be-between-17-and-19-earthquakes-of-magnitude-7-0-or",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-14",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.29,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "probability": 0.24,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "probability": 0.25,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-17",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-18",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.25,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.22,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.22,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.22,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.225,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.2,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.2,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.2,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.195,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}