{
 "question": "Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-there-be-exactly-1-confirmed-vei-4-or-higher-volcanic-eruption",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.24,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.225,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.205,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.205,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.195,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.195,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.205,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.205,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}