{
 "question": "Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-variational-launch-a-token-by-december-31-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-27",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-09",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.7125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.709,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.7075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.247,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.568,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.5895,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.52,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.527,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.474,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.4535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.4455,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.6345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.6615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.7275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.7495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.7565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.789,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.7835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.774,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}