Today’s Number
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market-consensus odds put this at 33% this morning.
Edition of July 7, 2026
Edition of July 7, 2026 · built from 8,790 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories.
33%
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since yesterday morning — the news, before it’s written up.
Movement tracking starts with tomorrow’s edition — today is the baseline.
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Switzerland vs Colombia: To Advance Colombia advances · settles today | Sports | 60% |
| Switzerland vs Colombia Winner? Reg Time: Colombia · settles today | Sports | 38% |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? Conor McGregor · settles in 4 days | Sports | 36% |
| Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the Auger-Aliassime vs Djokovic: Quarterfinal match? Felix Auger-Aliassime · settles today | Sports | 35% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 12 days | Sports | 19% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 853 days | Everything Else | 18% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 12 days | Sports | 17% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 12 days | Sports | 16% |
| Milwaukee vs St. Louis Winner? Milwaukee · settles today | Sports | 88% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 176 days | Everything Else | 12% |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 14, 2026? Before Jul 14, 2026 · settles in 7 days | Politics | 94.3% |
| The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 · settles in 6 days | Culture | 97.5% |
| Klaksvik vs Bissen Winner? Klaksvik · settles today | Sports | 96.5% |
| Will Kenzie be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Kenzie · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 94.5% |
| Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in June 2026? Above 2.6% · settles in 7 days | Economy | 97.5% |
| Will Dylan be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Dylan · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 93.5% |
| Chicago C vs Baltimore Total Runs? Over 3.5 runs scored · settles today | Sports | 94.5% |
| Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 90000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 90K · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% |
| Will the gold close price be above 4089 USD/t.oz on July 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $4089 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 75.50 USD/Bbl on July 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $75.50 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% |