The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Every question we track daily — the current market-consensus odds, and how they got there.

One page per question, updated every morning, with the full probability history free to download. New questions join automatically once they show staying power.

QuestionLeaningOdds
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3 days of history
Everything ElseGavin Newsom18%
Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3 days of history
SportsFrance32%
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 days of history
Everything ElseJ.D. Vance41%
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3 days of history
Politicsthe Republicans40%
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
3 days of history
PoliticsWide open0.5%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely2%
Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseWide open0.9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely16%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely9%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
3 days of history
PoliticsUnlikely8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely2%
France vs Morocco: To Advance?
3 days of history
SportsFrance advances78%
Who will win the 2027 NFL league championship?
3 days of history
SportsWide open7%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 days of history
PoliticsUnlikely0.1%
Norway vs England: To Advance?
3 days of history
SportsEngland advances64%
Who will be the next leader out before 2027?
3 days of history
Everything ElseKeir Starmer98%
Who will win the 2026 World Series?
3 days of history
Sportsthe New York Yankees12%
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
3 days of history
PoliticsWide open0.2%
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseWide open2%
Spain vs Belgium: To Advance?
3 days of history
SportsSpain advances74%
Who will win the 2026 MLS Cup?
3 days of history
Everything ElseWide open8%
Who will win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
3 days of history
Everything ElseWide open3%
Who will be the top grossing movie of 2026?
3 days of history
CultureWide open0.4%
France vs Morocco Winner?
3 days of history
SportsReg Time: France62%
Who will win the next presidential election?
3 days of history
PoliticsWide open2%
Will Coco Gauff win the Muchova vs Gauff: Semifinal match?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely39%
Who will win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
3 days of history
SportsWide open5%
Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3 days of history
Everything ElseWide open8%
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
3 days of history
PoliticsWide open0.4%
Who will win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3 days of history
SportsKylian Mbappé36%
Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles?
3 days of history
SportsLikely64%
Kylian Mbappe: 1+ goals?
3 days of history
SportsToss-up55%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the Genesis Scottish Open?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely9%
Will Novak Djokovic win the Wimbledon Men's Singles?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely10%
Will Trinity and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8?
3 days of history
Everything ElseLikely82%
Will France play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely24%
Will Wyndham Clark win the Genesis Scottish Open?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely3%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely14%
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
3 days of history
PoliticsWide open0.4%
Who will win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award?
3 days of history
Everything ElseWide open0.8%
Will Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely10%
Will Rory McIlroy win the Genesis Scottish Open?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely18%
Who will win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
3 days of history
SportsElena Rybakina12%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely10%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3 days of history
PoliticsUnlikely0.1%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the Genesis Scottish Open?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely0.5%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3 days of history
PoliticsUnlikely0.4%
Will BP be acquired before 2027?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely12%
Will Arnold Allen fight Alexander Volkanovski next?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely0.8%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?
3 days of history
Everything ElseLikely72%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
3 days of history
PoliticsUnlikely0.1%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 days of history
PoliticsUnlikely10%
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely18%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely6%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3 days of history
PoliticsUnlikely2%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
3 days of history
Everything ElseLikely78%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely3%
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely2%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely20%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
3 days of history
PoliticsUnlikely12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely1.2%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely3%
Will Tierra and KC win Love Island USA Season 8?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely13%
Will Golden State win the 2027 Pro Basketball Finals?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely4%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely1.2%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely29%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely5%
Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely0.1%
Will Kevin Gausman strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely0.5%
Will the final score be France wins 3-2?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely4%
Will Karolina Muchova win the Muchova vs Gauff: Semifinal match?
3 days of history
SportsLikely62%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
3 days of history
Everything ElseLikely93%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely14%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely0.1%
Will Wyndham Clark win the The Open Championship?
3 days of history
SportsUnlikely3%
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?
3 days of history
Everything ElseUnlikely9%

Data miners welcome. Every tracked question publishes its full daily history as JSON and CSV — see data/index.json for the machine-readable directory. Free to reuse with a link back.