The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning

0.2%

Today’s odds

As of July 9, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Angela Rayner leads at 0.2%.

Unchanged since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Angela RaynerDarren JonesWes StreetingBridget Phillipson
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Angela Rayner — Jul 7: 0.1%Angela Rayner — Jul 8: 0.1%Angela Rayner — Jul 9: 0.2%0.2%Darren Jones — Jul 7: 0.1%Darren Jones — Jul 8: 0.1%Darren Jones — Jul 9: 0.1%Wes Streeting — Jul 7: 0.1%Wes Streeting — Jul 8: 0.1%Wes Streeting — Jul 9: 0.1%Bridget Phillipson — Jul 7: 0.1%Bridget Phillipson — Jul 8: 0.1%Bridget Phillipson — Jul 9: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 8TodayMove
Angela Rayner0.1%0.2%—
Darren Jones0.1%0.1%—
Wes Streeting0.1%0.1%—
Bridget Phillipson0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateAngela RaynerDarren JonesWes StreetingBridget Phillipson
2026-07-090.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-080.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-070.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.