The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning

0.5%

Today’s odds

As of July 9, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Berhanu Nega leads at 0.5%.

Unchanged since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Berhanu NegaShimelis AbdisaAdanech AbiebieGedion Timothewos
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Berhanu Nega — Jul 7: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Jul 8: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Jul 9: 0.5%0.5%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 7: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 8: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 9: 0.2%Adanech Abiebie — Jul 7: 0.2%Adanech Abiebie — Jul 8: 0.2%Adanech Abiebie — Jul 9: 0.2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 7: 0.1%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 8: 0.1%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 9: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 8TodayMove
Berhanu Nega0.5%0.5%—
Shimelis Abdisa0.2%0.2%—
Adanech Abiebie0.2%0.2%—
Gedion Timothewos0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateBerhanu NegaShimelis AbdisaAdanech AbiebieGedion Timothewos
2026-07-090.5%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-07-080.5%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-07-070.5%0.2%0.2%0.1%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.