Today’s odds
As of July 9, 2026, market-consensus odds make Gavin Newsom the most likely outcome at 18%.
Unchanged since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Odds Tracker
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning
18%
How the odds have moved
Gavin NewsomAlexandria Ocasio-CortezRahm EmanuelJon StewartWes Moore
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 19% | 18% | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16% | 15% | ▼ 1 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2% | 2% | ▲ 1 |
| Jon Stewart | 2% | 2% | — |
| Wes Moore | 1.4% | 1.4% | — |
| Michelle Obama | 1.1% | 1.1% | — |
| Stephen A. Smith | 1.1% | 1.1% | — |
| Mark Kelly | 1.2% | 1.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Gavin Newsom | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Rahm Emanuel | Jon Stewart | Wes Moore | Michelle Obama | Stephen A. Smith | Mark Kelly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | 18% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-08 | 19% | 16% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-07-07 | 18% | 16% | 2% | 2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.