The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning

8%

Today’s odds

As of July 9, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Lamine Yamal leads at 8%.

Unchanged since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Lamine YamalErling HaalandMichael OlisePedriLuis Diaz
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Lamine Yamal — Jul 7: 6%Lamine Yamal — Jul 8: 8%Lamine Yamal — Jul 9: 8%8%Erling Haaland — Jul 7: 8%Erling Haaland — Jul 9: 5%Michael Olise — Jul 7: 7%Michael Olise — Jul 8: 6%Michael Olise — Jul 9: 5%Pedri — Jul 7: 1.3%Pedri — Jul 9: 1.2%Luis Diaz — Jul 8: 0.4%Luis Diaz — Jul 9: 0.2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 8TodayMove
Lamine Yamal8%8%—
Erling Haaland—5%—
Michael Olise6%5%▼ 1
Pedri—1.2%—
Luis Diaz0.4%0.2%—
Julian Alvarez0.1%0.1%—
Raphinha0.1%0.1%—
Bruno Fernandes0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateLamine YamalErling HaalandMichael OlisePedriLuis DiazJulian AlvarezRaphinhaBruno Fernandes
2026-07-098%5%5%1.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-088%—6%—0.4%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-076%8%7%1.3%—0.1%0.1%—

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.