Today’s Number
Will the minimum temperature be 65-66° on Jul 8, 2026?
Market-consensus odds put 65° to 66° at 72% this morning. · ▲ 66 points overnight
Edition of July 8, 2026
Edition of July 8, 2026 · built from 8,682 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories.
72%
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since yesterday morning — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Was | Now | Move | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moana Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 55 | Culture | 66% | 11% | ▼ 55 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >77° on Jul 8, 2026? 78° or above | Weather | 19% | 91% | ▲ 72 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 65-66° on Jul 8, 2026? 65° to 66° | Weather | 6% | 72% | ▲ 66 |
| Will average **gas prices** be above $3.820? Above 3.820 | Everything Else | 6% | 64% | ▲ 58 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 72.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 8, 2026? Above $72.99 | Commodities | 34% | 76% | ▲ 42 |
| Will UAE Team Emirates-XRG win the 2026 Tour de France? UAE Team Emirates-XRG | Everything Else | 78% | 26% | ▼ 52 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Jul 8, 2026? 73° to 74° | Weather | 44% | 97% | ▲ 53 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 76 USD/Bbl on July 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $76 | Commodities | 41% | 88% | ▲ 47 |
| Will drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 9, 2026? Before Jul 9, 2026 | Politics | 66% | 34% | ▼ 31 |
| Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)? July 6 | Everything Else | 10% | 57% | ▲ 48 |
Where Forecasts Split
Two independent consensus forecasts on the same question, meaningfully apart. Someone is wrong — that’s the story.
Will Kylian Mbappe score the most goals for France in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Kylian Mbappe
94%
Consensus A
57%
Consensus B
36 pt
gap
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Norway vs England: To Advance Norway advances · settles in 3 days | Sports | 36% |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? Conor McGregor · settles in 4 days | Sports | 36% |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles? Jannik Sinner · settles in 5 days | Sports | 66% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days | Sports | 33% |
| Will Trinity and Bryce win Love Island USA Season 8? Trinity and Bryce · settles in 54 days | Everything Else | 72% |
| France vs Morocco: To Advance Morocco advances · settles tomorrow | Sports | 22% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days | Sports | 19% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days | Sports | 19% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 11 days | Sports | 16% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 175 days | Everything Else | 14% |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway fight occur before Jul 13, 2026? Before Jul 13, 2026 · settles in 5 days | Sports | 93.5% |
| The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 90 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.0% |
| Will Logan Zapp win the Zapp vs Bennour Dit Sahli: M15 Monastir Round of 32 match? Logan Zapp · settles today | Sports | 96.5% |
| Will Donald Trump make above 220 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 5, 2026? >220 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 95.0% |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 70.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 8, 2026? Above $70.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% |
| Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10? Above $4.00 · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 98.5% |
| Will xperiment by Ken Carson have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 40K · settles in 4 days | Culture | 96.5% |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 69.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 8, 2026? Above $69.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.0% |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7419.9999 on Jul 8, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,420 or above · settles today | Markets | 96.5% |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7414.9999 on Jul 8, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,415 or above · settles today | Markets | 97.5% |