The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning

2%

Today’s odds

As of July 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.

Unchanged since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Jul 11Jul 12Yes — Jul 7: 2%Yes — Jul 8: 2%Yes — Jul 9: 2%Yes — Jul 10: 2%Yes — Jul 11: 2%Yes — Jul 12: 2%2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 11TodayMove
Yes2%2%—
Full history table
DateYes
2026-07-122%
2026-07-112%
2026-07-102%
2026-07-092%
2026-07-082%
2026-07-072%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.