Today’s odds
As of July 27, 2026, market-consensus odds make Claude the most likely outcome at 98%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 72 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Odds Tracker
Top Coding AI this month?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 6:00 PM ET
98%
How the odds have moved
ClaudeChatGPTKimi
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 96% | 98% | ▲ 1 |
| ChatGPT | 3% | 2% | — |
| Kimi | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Claude | ChatGPT | Kimi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | 98% | 2% | 2% |
| 2026-07-26 | 96% | 3% | 2% |
| 2026-07-25 | 96% | 4% | 2% |
| 2026-07-24 | 12% | 89% | 2% |
| 2026-07-23 | 28% | 72% | 2% |
| 2026-07-21 | 24% | 70% | 2% |
| 2026-07-20 | 25% | 70% | 2% |
| 2026-07-19 | 24% | 70% | 4% |
| 2026-07-18 | 28% | 69% | 3% |
| 2026-07-17 | 21% | 70% | 12% |
| 2026-07-16 | 22% | 77% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 20% | 78% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 19% | 79% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | 14% | 85% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 17% | 74% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | 10% | 89% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 8% | 88% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 42% | 54% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 46% | 54% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 49% | 52% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Top Coding AI this month” for 20 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 27, 2026, Claude leads the field at 98%. The chance for Claude has risen from 49% to 98%, ranging between 8% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.