The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:13 PM ET

80%

Today’s odds

As of July 20, 2026, market-consensus odds make Fake News the most likely outcome at 80%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Fake NewsHottestBallroomChina250
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 10Jul 13Jul 17Jul 20Fake News — Jul 7: 81%Fake News — Jul 8: 80%Fake News — Jul 9: 81%Fake News — Jul 10: 86%Fake News — Jul 11: 83%Fake News — Jul 12: 82%Fake News — Jul 13: 86%Fake News — Jul 14: 80%Fake News — Jul 15: 78%Fake News — Jul 16: 75%Fake News — Jul 17: 78%Fake News — Jul 18: 79%Fake News — Jul 19: 79%Fake News — Jul 20: 80%80%Hottest — Jul 7: 68%Hottest — Jul 8: 70%Hottest — Jul 9: 70%Hottest — Jul 10: 70%Hottest — Jul 11: 70%Hottest — Jul 12: 63%Hottest — Jul 13: 65%Hottest — Jul 14: 66%Hottest — Jul 15: 66%Hottest — Jul 16: 66%Hottest — Jul 17: 63%Hottest — Jul 18: 63%Hottest — Jul 19: 59%Hottest — Jul 20: 66%Ballroom — Jul 7: 72%Ballroom — Jul 8: 70%Ballroom — Jul 9: 72%Ballroom — Jul 10: 79%Ballroom — Jul 11: 79%Ballroom — Jul 12: 78%Ballroom — Jul 13: 78%Ballroom — Jul 14: 70%Ballroom — Jul 15: 70%Ballroom — Jul 16: 72%Ballroom — Jul 17: 74%Ballroom — Jul 18: 68%Ballroom — Jul 19: 66%Ballroom — Jul 20: 64%China — Jul 7: 54%China — Jul 8: 54%China — Jul 9: 55%China — Jul 10: 55%China — Jul 11: 56%China — Jul 12: 56%China — Jul 13: 54%China — Jul 14: 45%China — Jul 15: 44%China — Jul 16: 50%China — Jul 17: 55%China — Jul 18: 58%China — Jul 19: 58%China — Jul 20: 64%250 — Jul 7: 74%250 — Jul 8: 74%250 — Jul 9: 70%250 — Jul 10: 70%250 — Jul 11: 64%250 — Jul 12: 62%250 — Jul 13: 62%250 — Jul 14: 61%250 — Jul 15: 56%250 — Jul 16: 56%250 — Jul 17: 52%250 — Jul 18: 57%250 — Jul 19: 58%250 — Jul 20: 64%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 19TodayMove
Fake News79%80%▲ 1
Hottest59%66%▲ 7
Ballroom66%64%▼ 2
China58%64%▲ 6
25058%64%▲ 6
Stock Market60%63%▲ 3
Oil54%60%▲ 6
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating60%60%▼ 1
Full history table
DateFake NewsHottestBallroomChina250Stock MarketOilCheat / Cheater / Cheating
2026-07-2080%66%64%64%64%63%60%60%
2026-07-1979%59%66%58%58%60%54%60%
2026-07-1879%63%68%58%57%58%52%60%
2026-07-1778%63%74%55%52%68%57%60%
2026-07-1675%66%72%50%56%68%56%57%
2026-07-1578%66%70%44%56%69%54%56%
2026-07-1480%66%70%45%61%70%55%58%
2026-07-1386%65%78%54%62%72%52%56%
2026-07-1282%63%78%56%62%70%54%57%
2026-07-1183%70%79%56%64%70%57%60%
2026-07-1086%70%79%55%70%73%58%67%
2026-07-0981%70%72%55%70%66%60%66%
2026-07-0880%70%70%54%74%66%58%69%
2026-07-0781%68%72%54%74%66%58%70%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.