The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:13 PM ET

96%

Today’s odds

As of July 20, 2026, market-consensus odds make Jay Clayton the most likely outcome at 96%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Jay ClaytonBill PulteElise StefanikRick CrawfordMichael Ellis
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 10Jul 13Jul 17Jul 20Jay Clayton — Jul 7: 85%Jay Clayton — Jul 8: 88%Jay Clayton — Jul 9: 91%Jay Clayton — Jul 10: 94%Jay Clayton — Jul 11: 94%Jay Clayton — Jul 12: 94%Jay Clayton — Jul 13: 93%Jay Clayton — Jul 14: 94%Jay Clayton — Jul 15: 97%Jay Clayton — Jul 16: 96%Jay Clayton — Jul 17: 95%Jay Clayton — Jul 18: 96%Jay Clayton — Jul 19: 96%Jay Clayton — Jul 20: 96%96%Bill Pulte — Jul 7: 2%Bill Pulte — Jul 8: 2%Bill Pulte — Jul 9: 2%Bill Pulte — Jul 10: 1.3%Bill Pulte — Jul 11: 2%Bill Pulte — Jul 12: 2%Bill Pulte — Jul 13: 3%Bill Pulte — Jul 14: 3%Bill Pulte — Jul 15: 1.3%Bill Pulte — Jul 16: 1.2%Bill Pulte — Jul 17: 1.2%Bill Pulte — Jul 18: 1.2%Bill Pulte — Jul 19: 1.2%Bill Pulte — Jul 20: 1.2%Elise Stefanik — Jul 7: 0.9%Elise Stefanik — Jul 8: 0.9%Elise Stefanik — Jul 9: 1.0%Elise Stefanik — Jul 10: 1.0%Elise Stefanik — Jul 11: 1.0%Elise Stefanik — Jul 12: 1.0%Elise Stefanik — Jul 13: 1.0%Elise Stefanik — Jul 14: 0.6%Elise Stefanik — Jul 15: 0.6%Elise Stefanik — Jul 16: 0.6%Elise Stefanik — Jul 20: 0.6%Rick Crawford — Jul 7: 0.5%Rick Crawford — Jul 8: 0.5%Rick Crawford — Jul 9: 0.5%Rick Crawford — Jul 10: 0.5%Rick Crawford — Jul 11: 0.5%Rick Crawford — Jul 12: 0.5%Rick Crawford — Jul 13: 0.5%Rick Crawford — Jul 14: 0.5%Rick Crawford — Jul 15: 0.5%Rick Crawford — Jul 16: 0.5%Rick Crawford — Jul 20: 0.4%Michael Ellis — Jul 7: 1.1%Michael Ellis — Jul 8: 1.1%Michael Ellis — Jul 9: 1.1%Michael Ellis — Jul 10: 1.1%Michael Ellis — Jul 11: 1.1%Michael Ellis — Jul 12: 1.1%Michael Ellis — Jul 13: 1.1%Michael Ellis — Jul 14: 0.7%Michael Ellis — Jul 15: 0.7%Michael Ellis — Jul 16: 0.7%Michael Ellis — Jul 20: 0.2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 19TodayMove
Jay Clayton96%96%—
Bill Pulte1.2%1.2%—
Elise Stefanik—0.6%—
Rick Crawford—0.4%—
Michael Ellis—0.2%—
Amaryllis Fox Kennedy—0.2%—
Aaron Lukas—0.2%—
Full history table
DateJay ClaytonBill PulteElise StefanikRick CrawfordMichael EllisAmaryllis Fox KennedyAaron Lukas
2026-07-2096%1.2%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.2%0.2%
2026-07-1996%1.2%—————
2026-07-1896%1.2%—————
2026-07-1795%1.2%—————
2026-07-1696%1.2%0.6%0.5%0.7%—1.2%
2026-07-1597%1.3%0.6%0.5%0.7%—1.2%
2026-07-1494%3%0.6%0.5%0.7%—2%
2026-07-1393%3%1.0%0.5%1.1%—2%
2026-07-1294%2%1.0%0.5%1.1%——
2026-07-1194%2%1.0%0.5%1.1%—2%
2026-07-1094%1.3%1.0%0.5%1.1%——
2026-07-0991%2%1.0%0.5%1.1%—10%
2026-07-0888%2%0.9%0.5%1.1%—10%
2026-07-0785%2%0.9%0.5%1.1%—12%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.