The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Will Count Binface Party win the 2026 Clacton by-election?

Politics · tracked since July 8, 2026 · last updated 3:13 PM ET

6%

Today’s odds

As of July 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 8Jul 11Jul 14Jul 17Jul 20Count Binface Party — Jul 8: 5%Count Binface Party — Jul 9: 8%Count Binface Party — Jul 10: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 11: 8%Count Binface Party — Jul 12: 8%Count Binface Party — Jul 13: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 14: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 15: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 16: 4%Count Binface Party — Jul 17: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 18: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 19: 6%Count Binface Party — Jul 20: 6%6%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 19TodayMove
Count Binface Party6%6%—
Full history table
DateCount Binface Party
2026-07-206%
2026-07-196%
2026-07-186%
2026-07-176%
2026-07-164%
2026-07-154%
2026-07-146%
2026-07-136%
2026-07-128%
2026-07-118%
2026-07-106%
2026-07-098%
2026-07-085%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.