The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Will Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé have more goals in the FIFA World Cup?

Sports · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning

48%

Today’s odds

As of July 13, 2026, market-consensus odds make Kylian Mbappé the most likely outcome at 48%.

▼ 5 since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Kylian MbappéLionel MessiTie
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 9Jul 10Jul 11Jul 13Kylian Mbappé — Jul 7: 52%Kylian Mbappé — Jul 8: 38%Kylian Mbappé — Jul 9: 36%Kylian Mbappé — Jul 10: 45%Kylian Mbappé — Jul 11: 45%Kylian Mbappé — Jul 12: 54%Kylian Mbappé — Jul 13: 48%48%Lionel Messi — Jul 7: 44%Lionel Messi — Jul 8: 50%Lionel Messi — Jul 9: 46%Lionel Messi — Jul 10: 42%Lionel Messi — Jul 11: 43%Lionel Messi — Jul 12: 30%Lionel Messi — Jul 13: 30%Tie — Jul 7: 10%Tie — Jul 8: 16%Tie — Jul 9: 16%Tie — Jul 10: 16%Tie — Jul 11: 16%Tie — Jul 12: 18%Tie — Jul 13: 22%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 12TodayMove
Kylian Mbappé54%48%▼ 5
Lionel Messi30%30%▼ 1
Tie18%22%▲ 4
Full history table
DateKylian MbappéLionel MessiTie
2026-07-1348%30%22%
2026-07-1254%30%18%
2026-07-1145%43%16%
2026-07-1045%42%16%
2026-07-0936%46%16%
2026-07-0838%50%16%
2026-07-0752%44%10%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.