The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Will Lucas Herbert win the The Open Championship?

Golf · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026

4%

Final tracked odds

As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.

▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 4% on July 19, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

tracking begins0%25%50%75%100%Jun 22Jun 29Jul 5Jul 11Jul 19Lucas Herbert — Jun 22: 0%Lucas Herbert — Jun 23: 0%Lucas Herbert — Jun 24: 0.8%Lucas Herbert — Jun 25: 0%Lucas Herbert — Jun 26: 0%Lucas Herbert — Jun 27: 0.8%Lucas Herbert — Jun 29: 0%Lucas Herbert — Jun 30: 0%Lucas Herbert — Jul 1: 0%Lucas Herbert — Jul 2: 0%Lucas Herbert — Jul 3: 0.3%Lucas Herbert — Jul 4: 0.3%Lucas Herbert — Jul 5: 0%Lucas Herbert — Jul 6: 0.3%Lucas Herbert — Jul 7: 0.2%Lucas Herbert — Jul 8: 0.2%Lucas Herbert — Jul 9: 0.1%Lucas Herbert — Jul 10: 0.1%Lucas Herbert — Jul 11: 0.1%Lucas Herbert — Jul 13: 0.1%Lucas Herbert — Jul 14: 0.2%Lucas Herbert — Jul 15: 0.2%Lucas Herbert — Jul 17: 8%Lucas Herbert — Jul 18: 6%Lucas Herbert — Jul 19: 4%4%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 18TodayMove
Lucas Herbert6%4%▼ 2
Full history table
DateLucas Herbert
2026-07-194%
2026-07-186%
2026-07-178%
2026-07-150.2%
2026-07-140.2%
2026-07-130.1%
2026-07-110.1%
2026-07-100.1%
2026-07-090.1%
2026-07-080.2%
2026-07-070.2%
2026-07-06 *0.3%
2026-07-05 *0%
2026-07-04 *0.3%
2026-07-03 *0.3%
2026-07-02 *0%
2026-07-01 *0%
2026-06-30 *0%
2026-06-29 *0%
2026-06-27 *0.8%
2026-06-26 *0%
2026-06-25 *0%
2026-06-24 *0.8%
2026-06-23 *0%
2026-06-22 *0%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. The record is final; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.