Final tracked odds
As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Odds Tracker
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026
0.6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.6% | 0.6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | 0.6% |
| 2026-07-18 | 0.6% |
| 2026-07-17 | 0.6% |
| 2026-07-16 | 0.6% |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-12 | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-11 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-10 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-08 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-07 | 0.8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. The record is final; past values never change.