The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:13 PM ET

96%

Today’s odds

As of July 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 96%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 10Jul 13Jul 17Jul 20Reform UK — Jul 7: 96%Reform UK — Jul 8: 92%Reform UK — Jul 9: 92%Reform UK — Jul 10: 92%Reform UK — Jul 11: 92%Reform UK — Jul 12: 90%Reform UK — Jul 13: 94%Reform UK — Jul 14: 92%Reform UK — Jul 15: 96%Reform UK — Jul 16: 96%Reform UK — Jul 17: 96%Reform UK — Jul 18: 96%Reform UK — Jul 19: 96%Reform UK — Jul 20: 96%96%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 19TodayMove
Reform UK96%96%—
Full history table
DateReform UK
2026-07-2096%
2026-07-1996%
2026-07-1896%
2026-07-1796%
2026-07-1696%
2026-07-1596%
2026-07-1492%
2026-07-1394%
2026-07-1290%
2026-07-1192%
2026-07-1092%
2026-07-0992%
2026-07-0892%
2026-07-0796%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.