The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

2%

Today’s odds

As of July 21, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 11Jul 14Jul 17Jul 21Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 7: 6%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 8: 6%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 9: 4%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 10: 6%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 11: 6%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 12: 6%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 13: 4%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 14: 4%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 15: 4%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 16: 2%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 17: 2%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 18: 2%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 19: 2%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 20: 2%Before Aug 1, 2026 — Jul 21: 2%2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 20TodayMove
Before Aug 1, 20262%2%—
Full history table
DateBefore Aug 1, 2026
2026-07-212%
2026-07-202%
2026-07-192%
2026-07-182%
2026-07-172%
2026-07-162%
2026-07-154%
2026-07-144%
2026-07-134%
2026-07-126%
2026-07-116%
2026-07-106%
2026-07-094%
2026-07-086%
2026-07-076%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.