Today’s odds
As of July 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 24%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 7 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Odds Tracker
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:13 PM ET
24%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 19 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 24% | 24% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Nov 1, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 24% |
| 2026-07-19 | 24% |
| 2026-07-18 | 26% |
| 2026-07-17 | 28% |
| 2026-07-16 | 30% |
| 2026-07-15 | 30% |
| 2026-07-14 | 30% |
| 2026-07-13 | 32% |
| 2026-07-12 | 38% |
| 2026-07-11 | 40% |
| 2026-07-10 | 41% |
| 2026-07-09 | 40% |
| 2026-07-08 | 34% |
| 2026-07-07 | 38% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.