The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?

Economy · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:13 PM ET

3%

Today’s odds

As of July 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 10Jul 13Jul 17Jul 20Yes — Jul 7: 6%Yes — Jul 8: 6%Yes — Jul 9: 4%Yes — Jul 10: 4%Yes — Jul 11: 4%Yes — Jul 12: 6%Yes — Jul 13: 4%Yes — Jul 14: 4%Yes — Jul 15: 4%Yes — Jul 16: 4%Yes — Jul 17: 4%Yes — Jul 18: 4%Yes — Jul 19: 4%Yes — Jul 20: 3%3%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 19TodayMove
Yes4%3%▼ 1
Full history table
DateYes
2026-07-203%
2026-07-194%
2026-07-184%
2026-07-174%
2026-07-164%
2026-07-154%
2026-07-144%
2026-07-134%
2026-07-126%
2026-07-114%
2026-07-104%
2026-07-094%
2026-07-086%
2026-07-076%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.