Today’s odds
As of July 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 40%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Odds Tracker
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 6:00 PM ET
40%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41% | 40% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | 40% |
| 2026-07-26 | 41% |
| 2026-07-25 | 41% |
| 2026-07-24 | 41% |
| 2026-07-23 | 44% |
| 2026-07-22 | 43% |
| 2026-07-21 | 47% |
| 2026-07-19 | 43% |
| 2026-07-17 | 38% |
| 2026-07-16 | 34% |
| 2026-07-15 | 34% |
| 2026-07-14 | 35% |
| 2026-07-13 | 35% |
| 2026-07-12 | 34% |
| 2026-07-11 | 35% |
| 2026-07-10 | 35% |
| 2026-07-09 | 34% |
| 2026-07-08 | 35% |
| 2026-07-07 | 35% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026” for 19 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 40%. The chance for a yes has risen from 35% to 40%, ranging between 34% and 47% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.