Today’s Number
Will Ryan Colby win the Arseneault vs Colby: M25 Laval Round of 16 match?
Market-consensus odds put Ryan Colby at 26% this morning. · ▼ 45 points overnight
Edition of July 10, 2026
Edition of July 10, 2026 · built from 8,973 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories.
26%
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since yesterday morning — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Was | Now | Move | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026? Missouri | Everything Else | 62% | 6% | ▼ 56 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million | Culture | 90% | 12% | ▼ 77 |
| Will Ryan Colby win the Arseneault vs Colby: M25 Laval Round of 16 match? Ryan Colby | Sports | 70% | 26% | ▼ 45 |
| #2 US Netflix Show on Jul 13, 2026? I Will Find You: Limited Series | Culture | 18% | 79% | ▲ 62 |
| Will Marc Guehi start for England? Marc Guehi starts for England | Sports | 94% | 30% | ▼ 63 |
| What will the announcers say during Spain vs Belgium? Gianni / Infantino | Sports | 57% | 14% | ▼ 44 |
| Will Kavan win Love Island UK Season 13? Kavan | Everything Else | 3% | 57% | ▲ 54 |
| Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $6 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10? Above $6.00 | Everything Else | 32% | 86% | ▲ 54 |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.999 USD/MMBtu on July 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $2.999 | Commodities | 92% | 28% | ▼ 64 |
| Yomiuri Giants vs Yokohama DeNA BayStars winner? Yomiuri Giants | Sports | 46% | 4% | ▼ 42 |
Where Forecasts Split
Two independent consensus forecasts on the same question, meaningfully apart. Someone is wrong — that’s the story.
Will Ousmane Dembele score the most goals for France in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Ousmane Dembele
4%
Consensus A
59%
Consensus B
56 pt
gap
Will Kylian Mbappe score the most goals for France in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Kylian Mbappe
91%
Consensus A
59%
Consensus B
32 pt
gap
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days | Sports | 39% |
| Norway vs England: To Advance Norway advances · settles tomorrow | Sports | 36% |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? Conor McGregor · settles tomorrow | Sports | 34% |
| Spain vs Belgium: To Advance Spain advances · settles today | Sports | 74% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the Genesis Scottish Open? Rory McIlroy · settles tomorrow | Sports | 20% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days | Sports | 18% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days | Sports | 16% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 9 days | Sports | 16% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 173 days | Everything Else | 16% |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the Fery vs Zverev: Semifinal match? Alexander Zverev · settles today | Sports | 88% |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Yannik Kelm win the Paardekooper vs Kelm: M25 The Hague Quarterfinal match? Yannik Kelm · settles today | Sports | 97.5% |
| Will Kenzie be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Kenzie · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 95.5% |
| Will Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway fight occur before Jul 13, 2026? Before Jul 13, 2026 · settles in 3 days | Sports | 96.5% |
| Will Dylan be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Dylan · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 95.5% |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 69.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 10, 2026? Above $69.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.0% |
| The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 · settles in 3 days | Culture | 93.5% |
| Will xperiment by Ken Carson have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 40K · settles in 2 days | Culture | 98.5% |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 68.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 10, 2026? Above $68.49 · settles today | Commodities | 98.0% |
| Will the minimum temperature be >64° on Jul 10, 2026? 65° or above · settles tomorrow | Weather | 96.0% |
| Will the minimum temperature be >70° on Jul 10, 2026? 71° or above · settles tomorrow | Weather | 94.5% |