Today’s Number
Will Hae-Ran Ryu win the The Amundi Evian Championship?
Market-consensus odds put Hae-Ran Ryu at 76% this morning. · ▲ 60 points overnight
Edition of July 11, 2026
Edition of July 11, 2026 · built from 8,598 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories.
76%
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since yesterday morning — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Was | Now | Move | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $3.900? Above 3.900 | Everything Else | 86% | 4% | ▼ 81 |
| Will Linda Noskova win set 1 in the Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova match Linda Noskova | Sports | 48% | 98% | ▲ 50 |
| Will Hae-Ran Ryu win the The Amundi Evian Championship? Hae-Ran Ryu | Everything Else | 16% | 76% | ▲ 60 |
| England vs India Winner? India | Sports | 44% | 6% | ▼ 39 |
| #2 Global Netflix Show on Jul 13, 2026? Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 | Culture | 32% | 88% | ▲ 56 |
| Will NRG win the NRG vs. BBL Esports Valorant match? NRG | Sports | 60% | 24% | ▼ 37 |
| Rain in Dallas in Jul 2026? Above 3 inches | Everything Else | 52% | 10% | ▼ 42 |
| Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 130000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 130K | Culture | 55% | 96% | ▲ 42 |
| Will the CAC 40 be at least €8,650 in July 2026? At least €8,650 | Everything Else | 76% | 16% | ▼ 60 |
| Will Chase advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final Chase | Sports | 72% | 18% | ▼ 54 |
Where Forecasts Split
Two independent consensus forecasts on the same question, meaningfully apart. Someone is wrong — that’s the story.
Will Ousmane Dembele score the most goals for France in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Ousmane Dembele
4%
Consensus A
64%
Consensus B
59 pt
gap
Will Kylian Mbappe score the most goals for France in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Kylian Mbappe
97%
Consensus A
64%
Consensus B
34 pt
gap
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Boot and the Golden Ball in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Lionel Messi wins Golden Boot + Golden Ball
15%
Consensus A
32%
Consensus B
17 pt
gap
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Erling Haaland: 1+ · settles today | Sports | 46% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 8 days | Sports | 38% |
| Norway vs England: To Advance Norway advances · settles today | Sports | 36% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the Genesis Scottish Open? Rory McIlroy · settles today | Sports | 32% |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? Conor McGregor · settles today | Sports | 30% |
| Argentina vs Switzerland: To Advance Argentina advances · settles today | Sports | 74% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 8 days | Sports | 21% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 8 days | Sports | 18% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 172 days | Everything Else | 14% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 8 days | Sports | 14% |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| England vs India Winner? England · settles today | Sports | 94.5% |
| Will Linda Noskova win set 1 in the Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova match Linda Noskova · settles today | Sports | 97.5% |
| Will the high temp in NYC be <81° on Jul 11, 2026? 80° or below · settles today | Weather | 93.5% |
| The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% |
| Will New York Knicks win Best Team award at the 2026 ESPYS? New York Knicks · settles in 6 days | Everything Else | 94.5% |
| Top Coding AI this week? Claude · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 95.5% |
| Moana Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 32 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 95.0% |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.999 USD/MMBtu on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $1.999 · settles in 6 days | Commodities | 98.5% |
| Will the minimum temperature be >68° on Jul 11, 2026? 69° or above · settles tomorrow | Weather | 93.0% |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 68.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 13, 2026? Above $68.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 93.5% |