Today’s Number
Genesis Scottish Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 10?
Market-consensus odds put Si Woo Kim at 72% this morning. · ▲ 58 points overnight
Edition of July 12, 2026
Edition of July 12, 2026 · built from 8,373 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories.
72%
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since yesterday morning — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Was | Now | Move | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the minimum temperature be >73° on Jul 12, 2026? 74° or above | Weather | 16% | 98% | ▲ 82 |
| Genesis Scottish Open: Will John Keefer finish top 20? John Keefer | Sports | 32% | 96% | ▲ 64 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >69° on Jul 12, 2026? 70° or above | Weather | 30% | 96% | ▲ 66 |
| Genesis Scottish Open: Will Si Woo Kim finish top 10? Si Woo Kim | Sports | 13% | 72% | ▲ 58 |
| Will The Real Me by Future have above 140000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 140K | Culture | 30% | 88% | ▲ 57 |
| Ferroviario vs Gremio Novorizontino Winner? Ferroviario | Sports | 38% | 80% | ▲ 42 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the Genesis Scottish Open? Rory McIlroy | Sports | 32% | 2% | ▼ 30 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 55-56° on Jul 12, 2026? 55° to 56° | Weather | 30% | 96% | ▲ 66 |
| Will the high temp in LA be 74-75° on Jul 12, 2026? 74° to 75° | Weather | 48% | 4% | ▼ 44 |
| ISCO Championship: Will Ben Silverman finish top 20? Ben Silverman | Sports | 22% | 72% | ▲ 50 |
Where Forecasts Split
Two independent consensus forecasts on the same question, meaningfully apart. Someone is wrong — that’s the story.
Will Harry Kane score the most goals for England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Harry Kane
58%
Consensus A
3%
Consensus B
55 pt
gap
Will Jude Bellingham score the most goals for England in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Jude Bellingham
46%
Consensus A
3%
Consensus B
43 pt
gap
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| France vs Spain: To Advance France advances · settles in 2 days | Sports | 60% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days | Sports | 39% |
| Will France play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final? France vs Argentina · settles in 7 days | Sports | 28% |
| Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Genesis Scottish Open? Matt Fitzpatrick · settles today | Sports | 26% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days | Sports | 22% |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles? Jannik Sinner · settles today | Sports | 80% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days | Sports | 20% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 7 days | Sports | 19% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 171 days | Everything Else | 16% |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship? Scottie Scheffler · settles in 7 days | Sports | 12% |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| England vs India Winner? India · settles in 3 days | Sports | 98.5% |
| Ireland vs West Indies Winner? West Indies · settles today | Sports | 98.5% |
| The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 95 · settles today | Culture | 94.5% |
| Will average gas prices be above $3.860? Above 3.860 · settles today | Everything Else | 98.5% |
| Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026? Above 100 · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 98.5% |
| Top US Netflix Show on Jul 13, 2026? Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 1.999 USD/MMBtu on July 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $1.999 · settles in 5 days | Commodities | 98.5% |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 70.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 13, 2026? Above $70.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 93.5% |
| Will the minimum temperature be >69° on Jul 12, 2026? 70° or above · settles tomorrow | Weather | 95.5% |
| Will the minimum temperature be >73° on Jul 12, 2026? 74° or above · settles tomorrow | Weather | 98.5% |