Edition of July 14, 2026

Edition of July 14, 2026 · built from 9,008 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories.

76%

Today’s Number

Will the gold close price be above 4066 USD/t.oz on July 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Market-consensus odds put above $4066 at 76% this morning. · ▲ 58 points overnight

Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.

Forecast		Odds
Will any state enact a data center moratorium? Yes	Everything Else	98% ▲ 70 7d: ▲ 50
Will Ignacio Buse win the Tsitsipas vs Buse: Round Of 32 match? Ignacio Buse	Sports	14% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 38
Will the minimum temperature be >56° on Jul 14, 2026? 57° or above	Weather	96% ▲ 75 7d: ▲ 75
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes	Economy	94% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 15
Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 14, 2026? 74° to 75°	Weather	96% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 62
Will the gold close price be above 4066 USD/t.oz on July 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $4066	Commodities	76% ▲ 58 7d: ▲ 58
Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Jul 12, 2026 and Jul 18, 2026? Above 0	Politics	38% ▼ 53 7d: ▼ 53
Will there be at least 7 presidential actions in the week of Jul 12, 2026? At least 7	Everything Else	80% ▲ 57 7d: ▲ 57
Will the silver close price be above 58.50 USD/t.oz on July 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? above $58.50	Commodities	82% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 52
Portland vs Connecticut Over 166.5 points scored	Sports	88% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37

The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.

Forecast		Odds
England vs Argentina: To Advance Argentina advances · settles tomorrow	Sports	46% — 7d: ▼ 1
France vs Spain: To Advance France advances · settles today	Sports	60% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 5 days	Sports	39% — 7d: ▲ 6
Will France play Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup Final? France vs Argentina · settles in 5 days	Sports	28% — 7d: ▲ 4
England vs India Winner? India · settles today	Sports	76% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 5 days	Sports	22% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 5 days	Sports	21% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 5
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 169 days	Everything Else	20% — 7d: ▲ 7
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 5 days	Sports	18% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will the final score be France wins 2-1? Reg Time: France wins 2-1 · settles today	Sports	10% — 7d: ▲ 1

Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.

Forecast		Likelihood
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season? At least 1 · settles in 6 days	Sports	94.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 7
Will Facundo Yunis win the Yunis vs GUNDACKER: M25 Kramsach Round of 32 match? Facundo Yunis · settles today	Sports	97.5% —
Will The Real Me by Future have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 10, 2026 -July 16, 2026 tracking week? Above 120K · settles in 5 days	Culture	97.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 8
The Odyssey Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 · settles in 6 days	Culture	96.0% ▲ 16 7d: ▲ 21
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 75.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 14, 2026? Above $75.99 · settles today	Commodities	97.0% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 80
Will the S&P 500 be above 7474.9999 on Jul 14, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,475 or above · settles today	Markets	98.0% —
Will the NVIDIA B200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17? Above $4.00 · settles in 3 days	Everything Else	98.5% — 7d: ▲ 2
Best AI this week Claude · settles in 6 days	Everything Else	98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 76.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 14, 2026? Above $76.49 · settles today	Commodities	93.5% ▲ 25 7d: ▲ 80
Will the S&P 500 be above 7524.9999 on Jul 14, 2026 at 12pm EDT? 7,525 or above · settles today	Markets	96.5% —