The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:13 PM ET

98%

Today’s odds

As of July 20, 2026, market-consensus odds make Above 10 the most likely outcome at 98%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Above 10Above 11Above 12Above 150Above 13
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 10Jul 13Jul 17Jul 20Above 10 — Jul 7: 96%Above 10 — Jul 8: 98%Above 10 — Jul 9: 98%Above 10 — Jul 10: 98%Above 10 — Jul 11: 98%Above 10 — Jul 12: 98%Above 10 — Jul 13: 98%Above 10 — Jul 14: 98%Above 10 — Jul 20: 98%98%Above 11 — Jul 7: 92%Above 11 — Jul 8: 96%Above 11 — Jul 9: 96%Above 11 — Jul 10: 98%Above 11 — Jul 11: 98%Above 11 — Jul 12: 96%Above 11 — Jul 13: 98%Above 11 — Jul 14: 98%Above 11 — Jul 15: 98%Above 11 — Jul 16: 98%Above 11 — Jul 17: 98%Above 11 — Jul 18: 98%Above 11 — Jul 19: 98%Above 11 — Jul 20: 98%Above 12 — Jul 7: 90%Above 12 — Jul 8: 90%Above 12 — Jul 9: 94%Above 12 — Jul 10: 94%Above 12 — Jul 11: 94%Above 12 — Jul 12: 86%Above 12 — Jul 13: 94%Above 12 — Jul 14: 94%Above 12 — Jul 15: 96%Above 12 — Jul 16: 96%Above 12 — Jul 17: 92%Above 12 — Jul 18: 94%Above 12 — Jul 19: 96%Above 12 — Jul 20: 92%Above 150 — Jul 7: 52%Above 150 — Jul 8: 52%Above 150 — Jul 9: 54%Above 150 — Jul 10: 55%Above 150 — Jul 11: 68%Above 150 — Jul 12: 66%Above 150 — Jul 13: 70%Above 150 — Jul 14: 74%Above 150 — Jul 15: 70%Above 150 — Jul 16: 76%Above 150 — Jul 17: 74%Above 150 — Jul 18: 76%Above 150 — Jul 19: 76%Above 150 — Jul 20: 80%Above 13 — Jul 7: 59%Above 13 — Jul 8: 56%Above 13 — Jul 9: 66%Above 13 — Jul 10: 56%Above 13 — Jul 11: 56%Above 13 — Jul 12: 50%Above 13 — Jul 13: 68%Above 13 — Jul 14: 64%Above 13 — Jul 15: 74%Above 13 — Jul 16: 84%Above 13 — Jul 17: 69%Above 13 — Jul 18: 74%Above 13 — Jul 19: 72%Above 13 — Jul 20: 60%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 19TodayMove
Above 10—98%—
Above 1198%98%—
Above 1296%92%▼ 4
Above 15076%80%▲ 5
Above 1372%60%▼ 11
Above 1420%10%▼ 11
Above 15—2%—
Full history table
DateAbove 10Above 11Above 12Above 150Above 13Above 14Above 15
2026-07-2098%98%92%80%60%10%2%
2026-07-19—98%96%76%72%20%—
2026-07-18—98%94%76%74%21%2%
2026-07-17—98%92%74%69%14%2%
2026-07-16—98%96%76%84%22%4%
2026-07-15—98%96%70%74%20%4%
2026-07-1498%98%94%74%64%18%6%
2026-07-1398%98%94%70%68%20%6%
2026-07-1298%96%86%66%50%10%4%
2026-07-1198%98%94%68%56%18%6%
2026-07-1098%98%94%55%56%20%6%
2026-07-0998%96%94%54%66%23%6%
2026-07-0898%96%90%52%56%14%6%
2026-07-0796%92%90%52%59%16%4%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.