Today’s odds
As of July 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
▼ 8 since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Odds Tracker
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · updated every morning
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 4% | ▼ 8 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 4% |
| 2026-07-11 | 12% |
| 2026-07-10 | 4% |
| 2026-07-09 | 4% |
| 2026-07-08 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.