The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 1:04 PM ET

87%

Today’s odds

As of July 22, 2026, market-consensus odds make M&A / Acquisition the most likely outcome at 87%.

▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

M&A / AcquisitionInflationAI / Artificial IntelligenceCatastropheHeadwind
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 11Jul 15Jul 18Jul 22M&A / Acquisition — Jul 7: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 8: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 9: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 10: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 11: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 12: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 13: 81%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 14: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 15: 91%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 16: 90%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 17: 92%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 18: 90%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 19: 90%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 20: 90%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 21: 88%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 22: 87%87%Inflation — Jul 7: 76%Inflation — Jul 8: 76%Inflation — Jul 9: 44%Inflation — Jul 10: 64%Inflation — Jul 11: 75%Inflation — Jul 12: 78%Inflation — Jul 13: 76%Inflation — Jul 14: 79%Inflation — Jul 15: 78%Inflation — Jul 16: 76%Inflation — Jul 17: 85%Inflation — Jul 18: 87%Inflation — Jul 19: 86%Inflation — Jul 20: 83%Inflation — Jul 21: 86%Inflation — Jul 22: 86%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 11: 78%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 12: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 13: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 14: 75%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 15: 78%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 16: 78%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 17: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 18: 70%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 19: 72%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 20: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 21: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 22: 74%Catastrophe — Jul 7: 44%Catastrophe — Jul 8: 44%Catastrophe — Jul 9: 43%Catastrophe — Jul 10: 38%Catastrophe — Jul 11: 37%Catastrophe — Jul 12: 40%Catastrophe — Jul 13: 38%Catastrophe — Jul 14: 36%Catastrophe — Jul 15: 46%Catastrophe — Jul 16: 48%Catastrophe — Jul 17: 51%Catastrophe — Jul 18: 52%Catastrophe — Jul 19: 48%Catastrophe — Jul 20: 48%Catastrophe — Jul 21: 54%Catastrophe — Jul 22: 56%Headwind — Jul 7: 40%Headwind — Jul 8: 40%Headwind — Jul 9: 39%Headwind — Jul 10: 33%Headwind — Jul 11: 50%Headwind — Jul 12: 55%Headwind — Jul 13: 63%Headwind — Jul 14: 64%Headwind — Jul 15: 67%Headwind — Jul 16: 58%Headwind — Jul 17: 52%Headwind — Jul 18: 51%Headwind — Jul 19: 51%Headwind — Jul 20: 51%Headwind — Jul 21: 50%Headwind — Jul 22: 50%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 21TodayMove
M&A / Acquisition88%87%▼ 2
Inflation86%86%—
AI / Artificial Intelligence74%74%—
Catastrophe54%56%▲ 2
Headwind50%50%▼ 1
Snapshot37%36%▼ 1
Buyback12%30%▲ 18
Iran / Middle East22%22%—
Full history table
DateM&A / AcquisitionInflationAI / Artificial IntelligenceCatastropheHeadwindSnapshotBuybackIran / Middle East
2026-07-2287%86%74%56%50%36%30%22%
2026-07-2188%86%74%54%50%37%12%22%
2026-07-2090%83%74%48%51%37%14%16%
2026-07-1990%86%72%48%51%34%20%17%
2026-07-1890%87%70%52%51%37%12%20%
2026-07-1792%85%74%51%52%38%9%16%
2026-07-1690%76%78%48%58%39%12%16%
2026-07-1591%78%78%46%67%55%26%16%
2026-07-1480%79%75%36%64%38%23%38%
2026-07-1381%76%74%38%63%26%15%40%
2026-07-1280%78%74%40%55%26%26%40%
2026-07-1180%75%78%37%50%28%30%40%
2026-07-1080%64%—38%33%29%9%40%
2026-07-0980%44%—43%39%30%9%26%
2026-07-0880%76%—44%40%32%9%25%
2026-07-0780%76%—44%40%44%8%24%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.