The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning

38%

Today’s odds

As of July 10, 2026, market-consensus odds make Susan Collins the most likely outcome at 38%.

Unchanged since the previous edition. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Susan CollinsTroy JacksonShenna BellowsNirav ShahDan Kleban
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 8Jul 9Jul 10Susan Collins — Jul 7: 44%Susan Collins — Jul 8: 42%Susan Collins — Jul 9: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 10: 38%38%Troy Jackson — Jul 7: 32%Troy Jackson — Jul 8: 32%Troy Jackson — Jul 9: 36%Troy Jackson — Jul 10: 32%Shenna Bellows — Jul 7: 8%Shenna Bellows — Jul 8: 14%Shenna Bellows — Jul 9: 16%Shenna Bellows — Jul 10: 20%Nirav Shah — Jul 7: 10%Nirav Shah — Jul 8: 8%Nirav Shah — Jul 9: 7%Nirav Shah — Jul 10: 7%Dan Kleban — Jul 7: 2%Dan Kleban — Jul 8: 2%Dan Kleban — Jul 9: 3%Dan Kleban — Jul 10: 2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 9TodayMove
Susan Collins38%38%—
Troy Jackson36%32%▼ 4
Shenna Bellows16%20%▲ 3
Nirav Shah7%7%—
Dan Kleban3%2%▼ 1
Valli Geiger1.4%1.4%—
Graham Platner0.5%1.1%▲ 1
Jared Golden0.9%0.7%—
Full history table
DateSusan CollinsTroy JacksonShenna BellowsNirav ShahDan KlebanValli GeigerGraham PlatnerJared Golden
2026-07-1038%32%20%7%2%1.4%1.1%0.7%
2026-07-0938%36%16%7%3%1.4%0.5%0.9%
2026-07-0842%32%14%8%2%0.5%3%0.6%
2026-07-0744%32%8%10%2%0.4%3%0.9%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.