The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · updated every morning

12%

Today’s odds

As of July 15, 2026, market-consensus odds make Jean-Luc Mélenchon the most likely outcome at 12%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Jean-Luc MélenchonFrançois Baroin
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 9Jul 11Jul 13Jul 15Jean-Luc Mélenchon — Jul 7: 12%Jean-Luc Mélenchon — Jul 8: 10%Jean-Luc Mélenchon — Jul 9: 12%Jean-Luc Mélenchon — Jul 10: 12%Jean-Luc Mélenchon — Jul 11: 12%Jean-Luc Mélenchon — Jul 12: 12%Jean-Luc Mélenchon — Jul 13: 12%Jean-Luc Mélenchon — Jul 14: 12%Jean-Luc Mélenchon — Jul 15: 12%12%François Baroin — Jul 15: 0.2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 14TodayMove
Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%12%—
François Baroin—0.2%—
Full history table
DateJean-Luc MélenchonFrançois Baroin
2026-07-1512%0.2%
2026-07-1412%—
2026-07-1312%—
2026-07-1212%—
2026-07-1112%—
2026-07-1012%—
2026-07-0912%—
2026-07-0810%—
2026-07-0712%—

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.