The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 18, 2026

82%

Final tracked odds

As of July 18, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 82%.

▼ 6 since the previous update. ▲ 16 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 10Jul 13Jul 15Jul 18Troy Jackson — Jul 7: 52%Troy Jackson — Jul 8: 48%Troy Jackson — Jul 9: 44%Troy Jackson — Jul 10: 48%Troy Jackson — Jul 11: 66%Troy Jackson — Jul 12: 66%Troy Jackson — Jul 13: 72%Troy Jackson — Jul 14: 74%Troy Jackson — Jul 15: 78%Troy Jackson — Jul 16: 76%Troy Jackson — Jul 17: 88%Troy Jackson — Jul 18: 82%82%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 17TodayMove
Troy Jackson88%82%▼ 6
Full history table
DateTroy Jackson
2026-07-1882%
2026-07-1788%
2026-07-1676%
2026-07-1578%
2026-07-1474%
2026-07-1372%
2026-07-1266%
2026-07-1166%
2026-07-1048%
2026-07-0944%
2026-07-0848%
2026-07-0752%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. The record is final; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.