The Morning Line

Odds Tracker

Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Tour de France?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:13 PM ET

98%

Today’s odds

As of July 20, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 10Jul 13Jul 17Jul 20Tadej Pogacar — Jul 7: 84%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 8: 84%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 9: 83%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 10: 92%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 11: 92%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 12: 92%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 13: 94%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 14: 96%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 15: 94%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 16: 94%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 17: 94%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 18: 94%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 19: 98%Tadej Pogacar — Jul 20: 98%98%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 19TodayMove
Tadej Pogacar98%98%—
Full history table
DateTadej Pogacar
2026-07-2098%
2026-07-1998%
2026-07-1894%
2026-07-1794%
2026-07-1694%
2026-07-1594%
2026-07-1496%
2026-07-1394%
2026-07-1292%
2026-07-1192%
2026-07-1092%
2026-07-0983%
2026-07-0884%
2026-07-0784%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: JSON · CSV. Updated every morning; past values never change.

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.